Please read the README file in this repository.

Analysis of the most affected countries in Africa⮸

Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸

Confirmed⮸

Dead⮸

Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸

Active⮸

Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸

IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that the fit is good if it is shown.

The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.

South Africa⮸

Population $59,308,690$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $618,286$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{657,504.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(657,504.6\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $13,628$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,243.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 127.0)}}\) (asimptote \(19,243.1\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $73,320$ on 2020-08-27

Cabo Verde⮸

Population $555,987$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $3,699$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(118 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,703.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,703.7\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $38$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $912$ on 2020-08-27

Djibouti⮸

Population $988,000$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $5,383$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,249.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,249.2\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $60$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58.6\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $16$ on 2020-08-27

Equatorial Guinea⮸

Population $1,402,985$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $4,928$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(287 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,199.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 119.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,199.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.25 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 81.3)}}\) (asimptote \(97.0\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,047$ on 2020-08-27

Egypt⮸

Population $102,334,404$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $98,062$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(8.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,426.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(99,426.3\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $5,342$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(407 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,580.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,580.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $23,108$ on 2020-08-27

Congo (Kinshasa)⮸

Population $5,518,087$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $9,915$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,825.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,825.1\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $255$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 93.3)}}\) (asimptote \(263.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $640$ on 2020-08-27

Mauritania⮸

Population $4,649,658$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $6,993$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(497 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,659.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 89.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,659.0\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $158$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(155.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $454$ on 2020-08-27

Algeria⮸

Population $43,851,044$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,016$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,421.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 169.2)}}\) (asimptote \(93,421.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $1,475$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(255 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,693.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 96.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,693.3\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $11,384$ on 2020-08-27

Recovering countries that had over 300 active cases at peak⮸

List of all recovering countries (the top 4 not covered above are also analyzed below)⮸

Djibouti recovered 99%
Mauritania recovered 85%
Ghana recovered 85%
Madagascar recovered 80%
Cote d'Ivoire recovered 77%
Egypt recovered 58%
South Africa recovered 58%
Senegal recovered 9%
Malawi recovered 5%

Ghana⮸

Population $31,072,940$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $43,841$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(2.4 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{54,880.5}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 115.8)}}\) (asimptote \(54,880.5\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-03-25 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $270$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(12.3 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(33.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{364.2}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 127.0)}}\) (asimptote \(364.2\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,325$ on 2020-08-27

Madagascar⮸

Population $27,691,018$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $14,592$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(252 \times 10^{0.012t}\) (doubling rate \(24.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{15,732.4}{1 + 10^{-0.034 (t - 115.4)}}\) (asimptote \(15,732.4\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-05-29 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $184$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(11.1 \times 10^{0.014t}\) (doubling rate \(21.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{215.5}{1 + 10^{-0.032 (t - 64.3)}}\) (asimptote \(215.5\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-29 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $722$ on 2020-08-27

Cote d'Ivoire⮸

Population $26,378,274$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $17,702$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(1.37 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{18,534.8}{1 + 10^{-0.024 (t - 97.8)}}\) (asimptote \(18,534.8\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-05 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $115$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(16 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(46.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{127.8}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 84.3)}}\) (asimptote \(127.8\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $1,448$ on 2020-08-27

Senegal⮸

Population $16,743,927$

Confirmed⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)

Latest number $13,294$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(955 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(41.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{14,576.9}{1 + 10^{-0.015 (t - 112.4)}}\) (asimptote \(14,576.9\))

Dead⮸

Start date 2020-04-04 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)

Latest number $277$ on 2020-08-27

Best fit exponential: \(16.6 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(34.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{320.4}{1 + 10^{-0.018 (t - 104.1)}}\) (asimptote \(320.4\))

Active⮸

Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 active per million)

Latest number $4,043$ on 2020-08-27