Cross-country comparison over absolute dates⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Cross-country comparison with approximately aligned start days⮸
Daily Dead (7-Day Average)⮸
Per-country analysis with exponential and sigmoidal projections, and new cases analysis⮸
IMPORTANT: The projections are only accurate if the fit is good (it often isn't), and assuming nothing changes
going forward. The sigmoid is omitted if a reasonable fit can't be computed, but this still doesn't mean that
the fit is good if it is shown.
The dashed lines show best fit projections from a few previous days for comparison.
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $618,286$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.2 \times 10^{4} \times 10^{0.011t}\) (doubling rate \(27.4\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{657,504.6}{1 + 10^{-0.030 (t - 123.2)}}\) (asimptote \(657,504.6\))
Start date 2020-04-03 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $13,628$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(217 \times 10^{0.013t}\) (doubling rate \(23.8\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{19,243.1}{1 + 10^{-0.021 (t - 127.0)}}\) (asimptote \(19,243.1\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $73,320$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $3,699$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(118 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(31.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{4,703.7}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.5)}}\) (asimptote \(4,703.7\))
Start date 2020-03-24 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $38$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.24 \times 10^{0.010t}\) (doubling rate \(30.6\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{52.2}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 130.1)}}\) (asimptote \(52.2\))
Start date 2020-03-20 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $912$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $5,383$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.09 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,249.2}{1 + 10^{-0.031 (t - 68.3)}}\) (asimptote \(5,249.2\))
Start date 2020-04-10 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $60$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(12.2 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(52.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{58.6}{1 + 10^{-0.043 (t - 58.1)}}\) (asimptote \(58.6\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $16$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $4,928$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(287 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(37.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,199.9}{1 + 10^{-0.016 (t - 119.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,199.9\))
Start date 2020-04-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $83$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.25 \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.0\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{97.0}{1 + 10^{-0.020 (t - 81.3)}}\) (asimptote \(97.0\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $1,047$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-14 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $98,062$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(8.93 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{99,426.3}{1 + 10^{-0.027 (t - 96.3)}}\) (asimptote \(99,426.3\))
Start date 2020-03-22 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $5,342$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(407 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(39.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{5,580.4}{1 + 10^{-0.023 (t - 99.2)}}\) (asimptote \(5,580.4\))
Start date 2020-03-16 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $23,108$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $9,915$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.05 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(45.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{9,825.1}{1 + 10^{-0.025 (t - 88.9)}}\) (asimptote \(9,825.1\))
Start date 2020-03-21 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $255$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(28.6 \times 10^{0.006t}\) (doubling rate \(47.2\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{263.8}{1 + 10^{-0.017 (t - 93.3)}}\) (asimptote \(263.8\))
Start date 2020-03-19 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $640$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $6,993$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(497 \times 10^{0.008t}\) (doubling rate \(36.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{6,659.0}{1 + 10^{-0.040 (t - 89.3)}}\) (asimptote \(6,659.0\))
Start date 2020-03-30 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $158$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(19.3 \times 10^{0.007t}\) (doubling rate \(43.5\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{155.8}{1 + 10^{-0.047 (t - 76.7)}}\) (asimptote \(155.8\))
Start date 2020-03-28 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $454$ on 2020-08-27
Start date 2020-03-15 (1st day with 1 confirmed per million)
Latest number $43,016$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(1.82 \times 10^{3} \times 10^{0.009t}\) (doubling rate \(35.3\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{93,421.4}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 169.2)}}\) (asimptote \(93,421.4\))
Start date 2020-03-18 (1st day with 0.1 dead per million)
Latest number $1,475$ on 2020-08-27
Best fit exponential: \(255 \times 10^{0.005t}\) (doubling rate \(61.1\) days)
Best fit sigmoid: \(\dfrac{1,693.3}{1 + 10^{-0.011 (t - 96.1)}}\) (asimptote \(1,693.3\))
Start date 2020-03-17 (1st day with 1 active per million)
Latest number $11,384$ on 2020-08-27